Imber Wealth Advisors: June 2020

Thursday, June 25, 2020

How the Pandemic is Affecting the Real Estate Market

Research has found that over a 150-year period (1870 to 2015), owning a home has proved to be one of the most stable and secure holdings compared to other types of investments. While offering the added benefits of providing shelter and leaving it as a legacy, residential property is generally viewed as a financial asset able to withstand most crises — even a pandemic.¹

For years, homeowners in many areas of the country have benefited from sustained high prices in the residential real estate market, largely due to the low sales inventory of existing homes. In early March, the housing market appeared poised for a solid spring, particularly in light of high demand and low mortgage rates.²

But all that quickly changed once the coronavirus broke out in the United States. In almost no time, the busy spring season for purchasing and selling homes was cut short by buyers hesitant to venture out — or risk their savings should they lose their jobs — and homeowners not wanting strangers traipsing through their homes. Open houses were canceled, and virtual tours became virtually the only way to check out an occupied property. Some in the industry expect this disruption and its subsequent impact on the economy to shift housing prices into a downward trend.³

For retirees, or workers planning for their retirement, owning your home can be an asset. You can sell it if you need the equity for retirement, assuming you find a cheaper place to live. Or you can draw from that equity if need be while remaining in your home. During this complex time, you have options, and it’s important that you consider all of them before taking any significant financial action.

One of the biggest problems brought on by the pandemic is that business closings, bankruptcies and job losses mean that millions of Americans do not have the money to pay their mortgage or rent. To help provide relief, some states including California, Texas, New York and Florida have temporarily banned evictions. On the federal level, a provision in the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package passed in March allows homeowners with government-backed mortgages to defer payments for up to a year.⁴

However, that doesn’t help the long-term plight of renters — or their landlords, for that matter. According to the National Apartment Association (NAA), the profit margin for many landlords is very thin, around 9 cents for every $1. Furthermore, about two-thirds of residential rental properties don’t qualify for the federal mortgage deferral because they were purchased outright or through private loans. If landlords can’t make their payments, they may lose the property and tenants could still get kicked out. And in the end, cities and counties lose property tax revenue.⁵

On the commercial side, the real estate market could be impacted by shelter-in-place workspaces. After all, even if things do return to normal, now that employers and employees have sampled remote work as a viable option, it could become more commonplace. This means companies may need less office space. Is it possible we could see a glut of empty office parks and skyscrapers in the future? The same could apply to brick-and-mortar retailers, as quarantining has exposed the value and convenience of online shopping to even the most diehard mall rat.

But, as usual, where there are holes in the market, there are opportunities for investors willing to take a risk. Well-capitalized commercial real estate owners may look to acquire some of these distressed buildings at bargain prices.⁶

At Imber Wealth Advisors, we help people in the Ann Arbor area plan for retirement. With a strong financial plan in place, we can help you prepare to leave the workforce and live comfortably. Take control of your financialfuture and give us a call at (734) 769-1719 today!

¹ Ivan Anz. Utah Business. May 4, 2020. “Here’s what real estate investors should expect after COVID-19.” https://www.utahbusiness.com/real-estate-investors-covid-19/. Accessed May 29, 2020.

² Jacob Passy. MarketWatch. April 6, 2020. “America’s housing market is showing the first signs of trouble from the coronavirus pandemic.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-housing-market-is-showing-the-first-signs-of-trouble-because-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-04-02. Accessed June 2, 2020.

³ Ana Durrani. Realtor.com. April 29, 2020. “What Your Real Estate Agent Wants You To Know About the Housing Market Right Now.” https://www.realtor.com/advice/buy/real-estate-agent-wants-you-to-know-housing-market-coronavirus/. Accessed May 29, 2020.

⁴ Prashant Gopal and Oshrat Carmiel. Bloomberg. May 12, 2020. “If Landlords Get Wiped Out, Wall Street Wins, Not Renters.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/if-landlords-get-wiped-out-wall-street-wins-not-renters. Accessed May 29, 2020.

⁵ Ibid.

⁶ Ariel Maidansky. MarketWatch. April 29, 2020. “The future of commercial real estate – the weak get shaken out and the strong take over whole new markets.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-future-of-commercial-real-estate-the-weak-get-shaken-out-and-the-strong-take-over-whole-new-markets-2020-04-29. Accessed May 29, 2020.

We are an independent firm helping individuals create retirement strategies using a variety of insurance and investment products to custom suit their needs and objectives. This material is intended to provide general information to help you understand basic financial planning strategies and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. All investments are subject to risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

The information contained in this material is believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed; it is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions. If you are unable to access any of the news articles and sources through the links provided in this text, please contact us to request a copy of the desired reference.

Investment Advisory Services are offered by Imber Financial Group, LLC., a Registered Investment Adviser firm. Insurance services are offered through Imber Wealth Advisors, Inc. Imber Financial Group, LLC. and Imber Wealth Advisors, Inc. are affiliated companies

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

What Might Be Next - Inflation or Deflation?

Consumer prices fell by 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, the biggest drop in more than a dozen years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Conversely, prices for grocery items jumped 2.6%, the highest one-month increase in 46 years, with eggs rising by 16%.¹

What’s going on here? Well, the devil is in the details, an important lesson to learn about interpreting data. It’s true that supermarket prices are rising, mainly because of two factors: The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted supply lines, and more Americans are eating at home and buying more groceries. Together, these factors have contributed to the tight food supply, and per the economic theory of supply and demand, when supply is low and demand is high, prices rise.²

As for the drop in consumer prices, that’s the other side of the coin. With the nationwide efforts to close businesses and shelter in place, people are simply buying less. They may be out of a job or worrying about that prospect, so they’ve been hanging onto every last dollar — buying only the necessities.

The thing about falling demand is that it requires retailers and manufacturers to drop prices to entice sales. If they can’t sell what they are producing, then they cut back production, and people lose jobs. It’s a vicious circle, and one that can lead to deflation.³

Let’s face it, both inflation and deflation can have negative effects on investment portfolios, so it’s important to take steps to help protect against those risks.⁴ We have strategies that can help mitigate the effects of volatility on your retirement plan. Give us a call, and we’ll help tailor a plan for your personal circumstances.

Inflation usually gets top billing when discussing the economy because rising prices over the long term cut down on how much a dollar can buy. However, a little inflation, around 2% to 3%, isn’t a bad thing. It’s usually an indicator that people have jobs, spending demand is high and companies can afford to raise prices. Deflation, in contrast, can be more concerning, as it can lead to an economic recession or depression.⁵

The Federal Reserve, as part of its efforts to shore up the economy during the pandemic, appears just as intent on mitigating deflation as it is inflation. In early May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “As long as inflation expectations remain anchored, then we shouldn’t see deflation. Needless to say, we’ll be keeping very close track of that.”⁶

¹ Anneken Tappe. CNN Business. May 12, 2020. “Prices are tumbling at an alarming rate.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/economy/consumer-prices-april/index.html. Accessed May 21, 2020.

² David Goldman. CNN Business. May 14, 2020. “Grocery prices are soaring. Here’s what’s getting more expensive.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/business/grocery-prices/index.html#:~:text=That%20was%20the%20biggest%20increase,demand%20for%20groceries%20shot%20up%20. Accessed June 5, 2020.

³ Anneken Tappe. CNN Business. May 12, 2020. “Prices are tumbling at an alarming rate.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/economy/consumer-prices-april/index.html. Accessed May 21, 2020.

⁴ Paulina Likos. U.S. News & World Report. May 14, 2020. “How Inflation and Deflation Impact Your Investments.” https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-inflation-and-deflation-impact-your-investments. Accessed May 21, 2020.

⁵ Troy Segal. Investopedia. March 25, 2020. “Inflation vs. Deflation: What’s the Difference?” https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/111414/what-difference-between-inflation-and-deflation.asp. Accessed May 21, 2020.

⁶ Paul Davidson. USA Today. May 3, 2020. “Besides millions of layoffs and plunging GDP, here’s another worry for economy: Falling prices.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/03/coronavirus-us-deflation-falling-prices-new-economic-risk/3070084001/. Accessed June 5, 2020.

Monday, June 15, 2020

The Pandemic's Financial Toll on Women

In April alone, the U.S. lost more than 20 million jobs — increasing the unemployment rate to 14.7%. Researchers say one of the demographics hit hardest during the pandemic is women workers. Women tend to hold a disproportionate number of jobs in industries such as hospitality, health care and education. Consequently, the unemployment rate for women jumped to 15.5%.¹

The loss of one income in a two-income household is hard enough, but if a sole provider loses their income, things are even more difficult. If this happens to you, your first consideration should be to pursue any unemployment insurance options available to you. Also know that we are available to discuss your current situation and its potential impact on your long-term financial plans. Don’t hesitate to call for guidance.

For those who have remained fully employed by working at home, many have discovered a new, unexpected dynamic: working longer hours. Studies show the American workday has now increased by nearly three hours. On top of longer work hours, an in-home office may also mean juggling the roles of elementary school teacher and all-day caretaker. While this a relatively familiar issue for some families, the inability to separate work from home life is taking a higher toll on women. A recent survey found 14% of women are considering quitting their jobs due to COVID-19-related work and family conflicts.²

Despite these challenges, women have become a powerful economic force. They control nearly a third (32%) of the world’s wealth and are increasing their wealth by $5 trillion every year. While this wealth and power is clearly not universally spread across the gender, those who have accumulated significant assets are expected to weather any short-term impacts due to the current economic decline, and rise to $93 trillion by 2023.³

¹ Charisse Jones. USA Today. May 8, 2020. “Historic layoffs take biggest toll on Blacks, Latinos, women and the young.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/08/covid-19-layoffs-take-toll-women-people-color-and-young/3094964001/. Accessed May 12, 2020.

² Joan C. Williams. Harvard Business Review. May 11, 2020. “The Pandemic Has Exposed the Fallacy of the ‘Ideal Worker.’” https://hbr.org/2020/05/the-pandemic-has-exposed-the-fallacy-of-the-ideal-worker. Accessed May 12, 2020.

³ Anna Zakrzewski, Kedra Newsom, Michael Kahlich, Maximilian Klein, Andrea Real Mattar and Stephan Knobel. Boston Consulting Group. April 9, 2020. “Managing the Next Decade of Women’s Wealth.” https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/managing-next-decade-women-wealth.aspx. Accessed May 12, 2020.

Investment Advisory Services Are Provided Through Imber Financial Group, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor. Insurance Products are offered through Imber Wealth Advisors, Inc. Imber Financial Group, LLC & Imber Wealth Advisors, Inc are affiliated companies

Friday, June 12, 2020

Are the Stock Market & the Economy Out of Sync?

In normal times, the stock market is often a reflection of the economy. But these are not normal times. Even though April was marked by a global shutdown of businesses, rampant unemployment and low economic growth, the S&P 500 Index ended the month up 12.9%. This represented the highest one-month gain since 1987 and posted the fastest recovery of the fastest bear-market decline in 90 years.¹

It’s been a difficult time for investors, faced with the question of whether they should sell or “stay the course.” A lot depends on where you are in your timeline for achieving financial goals. You may have lost money and then regained it. You may have lost money and chose to sell. If you are near or in retirement, and unsure what you should do now, give us a call. We have many different options available to help you pursue your goals, and will help you create a financial strategy designed for your individual situation.

While the stock market and economy have an enormous influence on each other, it’s important to recognize stock prices often are driven by irrational emotions. Moreover, stock prices are forward looking, meaning they bet on future corporate profits, which do not necessarily take into account a correlation with organic growth. A good example of this was demonstrated by the 2017 corporate tax cut. Many companies used the increase in corporate earnings to buy back stocks and/or pay out dividends rather than invest in growth or worker income.

Recent volatility in the stock market is largely a result of investor optimism that the economy will survive the pandemic, followed by pessimism that it may take longer than hoped. Much of this is driven by government actions, such as the unprecedented consumer stimulus and small business “grants,” as well as the various closing and reopening phases of economies on a state-by-state basis.²

Stimulus actions may provide short-term relief, but also present a long-term drag on the economy. Reduced demand of common products and services may help ward off inflation, but the risk of deflation is just as damaging. Deflation is caused by a sustained period of falling prices, in which lower spending causes businesses to reduce staff and wages — as if that isn’t already a problem. Since consumer spending is one of the key drivers of the U.S. economy, this could lead to a long road to recovery.³

This brings us back to the stock market, with its eccentric performance that appears driven more by investor superstition, optimism and uncertainty rather than actual fundamentals. Longer term, asset prices will presumably begin to reflect the future fortunes (or losses) of corporations. It’s hard to see a scenario in which a wide swath of companies will thrive in the near term, with certain exceptions (like whichever pharmaceutical companies develop a COVID-19 vaccine).

For now, it’s important to view your portfolio within the scope of your financial goals and timeline for achieving them, as well as your risk tolerance. It’s easy to fall under the spell that a high-performing stock market will continue despite occasional blips, or that we’re in for negative returns for the foreseeable future. Regardless of which side of investor sentiment you fall on, stock market data is the same for everyone. The only differentiation is your own personal view of what will happen next.⁴

Meanwhile, health experts warn of a potential ramp up of contagion in states that reopen too quickly and/or in the fall when flu season commences. Given this possibility, any moves you take right now may be short-term; your view may change again if and when this actually happens. It’s possible we could have a short-term recovery, and long-term investors may want to stay in the market for exposure to that. But no one can accurately predict when the stock market could drop precipitously again, so bear that in mind.⁵

¹ John Persinos. Investing Daily. May 4, 2020. “Economy Down, Stocks Up: Why The Disconnect?” https://www.investingdaily.com/55655/economy-down-stocks-up-why-the-disconnect/. Accessed May 5, 2020.

² Barbara Kollmeyer. Marketwatch. May 5, 2020. “This is the trap awaiting the stock market ahead of a grim summer, warns Nomura strategist.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-trap-awaiting-the-stock-market-ahead-of-a-grim-summer-warns-nomura-strategist-2020-05-05. Accessed May 5, 2020.

³ Paul Davidson. USA Today. May 3, 2020. “Besides millions of layoffs and plunging GDP, here’s another worry for economy: Falling prices.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/03/coronavirus-us-deflation-falling-prices-new-economic-risk/3070084001/. Accessed May 5, 2020.

⁴ Knowledge@Wharton. Jan. 14, 2020. “How Superstition Triggers Stock Price Volatility.” https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/wachter-superstitious-investors-research/. Accessed May 5, 2020.

⁵ Matt Egan. CNN. April 16, 2020. “The stock market is acting like a rapid recovery is a slam dunk. It’s not.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/investing/stock-market-dow-jones-recession/index.html. Accessed May 5, 2020.

Thursday, June 4, 2020

The Perks & Pitfalls of Self-Employment

Sole proprietors in the U.S. caught a huge break in April. The Paycheck Protection Program, borne out of the economic hardship caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, became available to solo entrepreneurs and independent contractors on April 10, 2020.¹

According to a 2017 survey, 36% of U.S. workers are part of the gig economy.² With so many sole proprietors contributing to today’s economy, it stands to reason that the federal government would recognize these contributions through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act’s small-business loans and unemployment insurance provisions.

Retirement planning can be difficult when you work for yourself, especially when it comes to navigating the various retirement plan options. If you’d like help creating a strategy for income in retirement, please give us a call. We’ll work with you to craft a plan that is designed to match both your needs and business model.

One of the silver linings of the recent crisis may be a greater focus on the needs of independent workers. Following the lead of recent federal government legislation, individual states are getting in on the act. California, New York and Washington already offer paid family and medical leave benefit programs in which the self-employed can participate. Meanwhile, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Oregon and the District of Columbia also are working to establish family and medical leave programs.³

Given the recent rise in unemployment numbers, it would be no surprise to see more people consider self-employment once the economy recovers. Many people don’t like having to rely on government benefits to see them through hard times, but recent experiences have shown that traditional employment may not always be reliable either. However, there are a mountain of considerations when it comes to becoming a full-time sole proprietor.

For example, it takes a broader set of business skills. Not only do you provide the product or service that you’re good at, but you also have to learn to manage the administrative functions of your business, including accounting, marketing and sales. Some of the sad truths of self-reliance are that there are often no financial safety nets, you might work long hours — even if you are sick or caring for a sick family member — and may not be able to enjoy vacations since you are “on call” nearly 24/7, 365 days a year.⁴

There are perks to being self-employed, however, such as the opportunity to earn unlimited income. There are also tax deductions that self-employed individuals may qualify for and potential household budget savings on things like professional business clothes and commuting expenses.⁵

¹ Elaine Pofeldt. CNBC. April 10, 2020. “Paycheck Protection Program aid opens for sole proprietorships and independent contractors.” https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/10/paycheck-protection-program-opens-for-sole-proprietorships.html. Accessed April 30, 2020.

² Lisa Hogan. Bloomberg Law. Sept. 17, 2019. “The Gig Economy Could Change How Employers Gear for Next Recession.” https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/insight-the-gig-economy-could-change-how-employers-gear-for-next-recession. Accessed April 30, 2020.

³ Michelle Andrews. Kaiser Health News. March 19, 2020. “Gig Economy Workers Hurt By Coronavirus Eye New Federal Funds For Relief.” https://khn.org/news/gig-economy-workers-hurt-by-coronavirus-eye-new-federal-funds-for-relief/. Accessed April 30, 2020.

⁴ Holly Johnson. The Simple Dollar. April 8, 2020. “Seven Truths About Self-Employment.” https://www.thesimpledollar.com/make-money/seven-truths-about-self-employment/. Accessed April 30, 2020.

⁵ Greg Johnson. Dough Roller. Dec. 2, 2019. “11 Financial Benefits of Being Self-Employed.” https://www.doughroller.net/small-business/11-financial-benefits-self-employed/. Accessed April 30, 2020.

Neither our firm nor its agents or representatives may give tax advice. Be sure to speak with a qualified professional about your unique situation.