Imber Wealth Advisors: January 2021

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Global Recovery in a Post-Pandemic World

In 2020, the World Economic Forum published its annual Global Competitiveness Report, as usual. However, in light of the global pandemic, it put its long-standing Global Competitiveness Index rankings on hold. Instead, the report focused on priorities for recovery and revival instead of competition.¹

Indeed, economic globalization over the past two decades, in many ways, seems to have made the world much smaller. The world seems to be more integrated, and some countries rely on each other for supply chain and production capabilities, geopolitical support and shared innovation and technologies.²

Moving past this latest pandemic, it would be beneficial to the world if countries worked together to ensure this virus, and others in the future, are more efficiently contained and do not impact the global economy in the manner in which COVID-19 has. The 2020 World Economic Forum report emphasized four main areas in need of transformation: the environment, human capital, financial markets and the innovation ecosystem.³

These four areas could apply to our own households as well. After all, some of us leaned on each other throughout the pandemic — neighbors shopping for neighbors, checking in on each other, making the extra effort to stay in touch with high-risk individuals to keep their spirits up. And while the country suffered through COVID, we simultaneously experienced the highest number of named storms on record, record levels of wildfires and the hottest day on record (129.9 F in Death Valley, California).⁴

Depending on circumstances, some people’s household finances have been transformed, leaving some with less income and others with more savings. We relied on and appreciated technology to keep us fed, clothed and connected with loved ones and colleagues. During this intervening time of recovery, we should not forget the lessons learned. Feel free to contact us if you are looking for ways to help protect your finances in the wake of future crises — whether global, national or household.

In other parts of the world, the new U.S. administration will likely foster a change in global relationships. The Biden presidency is expected to nurture relations with European countries and approach the China trade war with a more mutually beneficial exchange. Furthermore, as we return to more normal economic fundamentals in the new year, we could see a weaker U.S. dollar that may favor emerging markets in the short term.⁵

The day before Christmas, Great Britain ironed out its long-awaited deal with Europe to move forward with the separation known as Brexit. The new deal promises a rebalance of regulations and other challenges between the two continents, but it does not include any new tariffs or quotas.⁶ The split, which formally begins on Feb. 1, looks like it could make things more difficult for residents of the two regions when it comes to cross-border travel, attending universities, business dealings and job opportunities.⁷

We take pride in assisting our clients with incorporating all aspects of their life into their Retirement Roadmap 360®. Take control of your financial future and give us a call at (734) 769-1719 today to see how we may be able to help you!

¹ Klaus Schwab and Saadia Zahidi. World Economic Forum. 2020. “How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery.” http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2020.pdf. Accessed Dec. 29, 2020.

² Ibid.

³ Saadia Zahidi. World Economic Forum. Dec. 16, 2020. “This is how countries can rebuild competitive economies for people and planet.” https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/how-countries-can-rebuild-competitive-economies-for-people-and-planet/. Accessed Dec. 29, 2020.

⁴ EcoWatch. Dec. 23, 2020. “The Top 10 Extreme Weather and Climate Events of 2020.” https://www.ecowatch.com/extreme-weather-climate-2020-2649628910.html?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1. Accessed Dec. 29, 2020.

⁵ Robert Horrocks. AdvisorPerspectives. Dec. 14, 2020. “CIO Outlook: Tailwinds for Emerging Markets.” https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/12/14/cio-outlook-tailwinds-for-emerging-markets. Accessed Dec. 29, 2020.

⁶ Bloomberg. Dec. 24, 2020. “In Bullet Points: The Key Terms of the Brexit Deal Analyzed.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-24/in-bullet-points-the-key-terms-of-the-brexit-deal. Accessed Dec. 29, 2020.

⁷ Joe Mayes. Bloomberg | Quint. Dec. 28, 2020. “Not So Fast! What Brexit Means for Border Crossers.” https://www.bloombergquint.com/quicktakes/not-so-fast-what-brexit-means-for-border-crossers-quicktake. Accessed Dec. 29, 2020.

The information contained in this material is believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed; it is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions. If you are unable to access any of the news articles and sources through the links provided in this text, please contact us to request a copy of the desired reference.

Investment Advisory Services are offered by Imber Financial Group, LLC., a Registered Investment Adviser firm. Insurance services are offered through Imber Wealth Advisors, Inc. Imber Financial Group, LLC. and Imber Wealth Advisors, Inc. are affiliated companies

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

2021 Outlook: Wealth Managers Weigh In

While challenges likely still lie ahead, there’s no denying we all weathered our fair share of storms in 2020. Now that the calendar has turned to a new year, we looked to wealth managers across the nation to find out what they’re expecting for 2021. As you’ll see, the answer often changes depending on where you look.

According to its latest 2021 economic outlook, UBS expects widescale availability of the COVID-19 vaccine will increase global output in 2021. The firm anticipates corporate earnings will return to pre-pandemic highs by the end of 2021 and recommends that investors diversify their portfolios by rebalancing out of U.S. large caps and global consumer staples and into global equities and cyclical stocks with catch-up potential.¹

Merrill Lynch anticipates full recovery will take a bit longer. It doesn’t see a complete restoration of growth, innovation and stability until 2022. However, the firm predicts 2021 will see progress, particularly in industries that benefited from the pandemic. It also sees opportunities for sectors in which pent-up demand could soar, such as air travel and hospitality.²

Goldman Sachs has dubbed its projection for a V-shaped recovery the “Vaccine-Shaped Recovery,” reinforcing its outlook now that the vaccine is becoming available. The money manager anticipates economic activity will rebound by this summer, with a ramp-up in depressed sectors such as travel, accommodation and food services. Goldman projects the United States and Europe will end the year with a 2% jump in GDP, while most emerging economies will lag with a somewhat slower recovery.³

JP Morgan Asset Management also predicts a relatively fast rebound thanks to vaccine availability. It warns, however, that job recovery, GDP and inflation are more dependent on policies implemented by the Federal Reserve and the new presidential administration, so they may lag somewhat. Its analysts say U.S. equities already boast high valuations, so investors may find more growth opportunity in international stocks and alternative assets that offer both income and downside protection.⁴

Whether you’re bullish or bearish on the coming recovery, the U.S. economic prospects seem to look much better than they did six months ago. If you’d like a financial review to see if there are ways to better position your assets for the future, please give us a call.

¹ UBS. 2020. “A Year of Renewal.” https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/market-news/cio/insights-display-adp/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/market-insights/2021/year-ahead.html#livestream. Accessed Dec. 17, 2020.

² Merrill Lynch. Dec. 17, 2020. “Outlook 2021: How to Prepare for the Year Ahead.” https://www.ml.com/articles/2021-market-outlook-portfolio-investments.html. Accessed Dec. 17, 2020.

³ Goldman Sachs. Nov. 7, 2020. “V(accine)-Shaped Recovery.” https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/macro-outlook-2021/report.pdf. Accessed Dec. 17, 2020.

⁴ JP Morgan Asset Management. 2020. “The Investment Outlook for 2021.” https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/investment-outlook-2021-us.pdf. Accessed Dec. 17, 2020.

We are an independent firm helping individuals create retirement strategies using a variety of insurance and investment products to custom suit their needs and objectives. This material is intended to provide general information to help you understand basic financial planning strategies and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. All investments are subject to risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. The information contained in this material is believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed; it is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions. If you are unable to access any of the news articles and sources through the links provided in this text, please contact us to request a copy of the desired reference.

Saturday, January 2, 2021

What's Ahead for the Stock Market?

In November, the Dow experienced its best month since 1987, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes enjoyed their best month since April of this year.¹

With the election behind us and a vaccine on the horizon, the stock market has plenty to celebrate. Many consumers used the pandemic period to shore up their savings, which bodes well for their prosperity in the coming year. There is a low chance of increased taxes or massive reforms given the divide in Congress, and while interest rates remain low, the home-buying market is poised to soar on renewed consumer confidence. All of these factors may be historically good news for investment markets.²

The stock market increases 82% of the time in the first year of new presidential terms,³ and the S&P 500 has averaged 11.7% returns in the first year of every presidential term since the end of World War II, regardless of party affiliation. Furthermore, the S&P 500 has averaged 15.6% returns with Democratic presidents compared 10% with Republican presidents. Industries like technology, health care, financials and industrials tend to thrive under a Democratic president.⁴

Despite jobs and economic growth taking a hit in 2020, that fortunately wasn’t reflected in the stock market. For more insight on how to plan for the coming year, feel free to reach out to one of our financial advisors for a review.

¹ Matt Egan. CNN. Nov. 30, 2020. “Trump said the stock market would crash if Biden won. The Dow just had its best month since 1987.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/business/stock-market-dow-jones-trump-biden/index.html. Accessed Nov. 30, 2020.

² Jeremy Siegel. Knowledge@Wharton. Nov. 21, 2020. “Jeremy Siegel: What’s Ahead for the Stock Market?” https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/siegel-markets-economy/. Accessed Nov. 30, 2020.

³ Mark Hulbert. Marketwatch. Nov. 28, 2020. “Opinion: Here are your odds that stock prices will be higher at the end of 2021.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-your-odds-that-stock-prices-will-be-higher-at-the-end-of-2021-2020-11-24?mod=MW_section_top_stories. Accessed Nov. 30, 2020.

⁴ Savita Subramanian. Merrill Lynch. Oct. 8, 2020. “The Markets and Presidential Elections.” https://www.ml.com/articles/market-volatility-presidential-elections.html#financial-research-and-insights. Accessed Nov. 30, 2020.